Teneo Intelligence, a New York-based analysis firm, says the Osun state governorship election has shown that President Muhammadu Buhari could lose in 2019.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) secured the highest votes in the governorship poll which the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared inconclusive.
Ademola Adeleke, candidate of the PDP, polled 254,699, while his closest challenger, Isiaka Oyetola of the All progressives Congress (APC) had 254,345 votes.
In a report obtained by Bloomberg, the intelligence firm said if the opposition manages to unite, February election would be a tough one for the ruling party.
“There is already a clear message sent from Osun State: provided the PDP remains united, and the vote is reasonably free and fair, Buhari and his APC are likely to lose the general election,” Malte Liewerscheidt, an analyst at Teneo, said.
This is the latest blow to the Buhari reelection campaign.
In its report titled: “Nigeria: Papering Over The Cracks”, HSBC Bank, a global financial organisation, said the economy will suffer setback if Buhari wins in 2019.
The institution, however, added that the chances of Buhari winning another term were slim.
“A second term for Mr Buhari however raises the risk of limited economic progress and further fiscal deterioration, prolonging the stagnation of his first term, particularly if there is no move towards completing reform of the exchange rate system or fiscal adjustments that diversify government revenues away from oil,” the report read.
“In the near term, however, the election impact is likely to be negative as increased political uncertainty precludes policy reforms, weighs on confidence, deters investment spending and restrains the growth outlook.”
Garba Shehu, senior special assistant to the president on media and publicity, had attacked the bank, attributing the report to the fear that the current administration could sanction the bank for shielding stolen wealth of corrupt Nigerians.
Shehu said the bank had soiled its hand with millions of US dollars looted by Sani Abacha, former military head of state.
DESERT HERALD has learnt yesterday that in an effort to secure victory in tomorrow’s re-run Osun governorship election the two contending political parties have all reached out to the SDP guber candidate of the State, Sen. Iyiola Omisore whose support can determine the success of the two embattled political parties. While PDP’s visit to Mr. Omisore with the Senate President, Sen. Bukola Saraki leading to pacify the ‘beautiful’ bride, ended without controversy, that of APC which was led by the party’s national chairman, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole generated so much allegations of inducements that Omisore may hardly resist if the Nigeria factor is anything to go by.
Credible inside sources have confirmed to DESERT HERALD that that the APC delegation to Omisore which comprises of about five governors of the party have made a mouth watering offers to Omisore and that as a result he has assured his visitors that he will decamp to the APC. Other sources told this reporter that even if Omisore did not decamp to the APC probably due to intense grassroots pressure that was mounted on him, he will certainly support the candidate of the APC during tomorrow’s governorship re-run. The source said the result of the last weekend election has devastated and unsettled the APC more so as even international body are using the outcome to score President Muhammadu Buhari low and to justify his diminishing popularity across Nigeria and even predicting PDP’s victory in the next presidential election if they organised themselves and becomes united.
Part of the irresistible offer the PDP delegation reportedly took to Mr. Omisore DESERT HERALD can report is the alleged delivery of N480 million cash to him. Omisore was also offered an automatic return ticket to the Senate, two House of Representatives ticket for his deputy and former minister of Police Affairs, two slots in the state executive council to be named as commissioners in Oyetola’s cabinet. The delegation also reportedly promised Mr. Omisore that all the EFCC cases against him will be dropped or be frustrated to die a natural death while his International passport which has been with EFCC for almost a year will be return back.
The meeting was reportedly sealed in Ibadan and Omisore is expected to either officially declare for APC today (Wednesday) or he will clearly worked for the APC candidate. But his supporters have vowed to disgrace him if he has indeed compromised them to the APC and promised to vote for the candidate of the PDP in tomorrow’s re-run. The aftermath of tomorrow’s re-run will certainly give a more clearer picture about the compliance or lack of it with the APC.